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Grain Exports from Russia in this agricultural year may reach 31.9 million tonnes – expert

Дата новости: 16\06\2015

In this agricultural year (July 2014 — June 2015) Russia may export a record amount of grain totalling 31.9 million tonnes. The export potential of the following year is rated at between 30 and 32 million tonnes, Rusagrotrans CJSC forecasts.

«When we factor in exports of flour and pulses (into the total for grains — Ed) along with the grain deliveries to Kazakhstan, the overall export figures may reach 31.9 tonnes» said Mr Igor Pavensky, Deputy Director of the Strategic Marketing department at Rusagrotrans JSCS.

Meanwhile deliveries of wheat, including to Kazakhstan, in Mr Pavensky’s opinion, will reach 22.3 million tonnes. Exports of barley run at 5.3 million tonnes, and maize at 3 million tonnes.

Noting the 'sharp upturn' in the pace of production in early June, Mr Pavensky noted that with high supply rates for deliveries this month, they might top 1.6 million tonnes, which includes 1.1 million tonnes of wheat, 150 thousand tonnes of barley, and 300 thousand tonnes of maize.

According to his forecasts, deep-water-port exports in June could exceed 715 thousand tonnes of grain (about 45% of Russia’s export) as against just 658 thousand tonnes in May (54%). The main item being exported is wheat, at 94%. The remaining 6% of exports consist of maize. There are no figures for barley exports — but during May the wheat share of exports was 56%, and maize was 25%, our expert interjected.

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s figures, from 1st July 2014 to 10th June 2015 Russia exported 29,415,000 tonnes of grain — up 17.8% on the same period in the preceding agricultural year, when the total was 24,983,000 tonnes.

The Analytical Centre at Rusagrotrans upped its estimates for grain production this year from 97 or 98 million tonnes to 99 or 100 million tonnes. The moderately optimistic scenario in which grain harvests might total 99.5 million tonnes is based on modest growth in cultivated acreage and reductions in average harvest yields — from 22.8 tonnes per acre down to 21.4 tonnes per acre this year, analysts clarified.

These figures for grain harvests could mean grain export potential in the new agricultural year might top 30–32 million tonnes.

Rusagrotrans experts believe grain production is expected to come in at 45.3 million tonnes — which is 6.2% lower than in 2014, while barley may hit 54.2 million tonnes (ie 5% down).

Wheat production may dip by 4.1% to 57.3 million tonnes, and barley by 16.1% to 17.1 million tonnes. Meanwhile maize production could be up by 4.4% to reach 11.8 million tonnes.

The Financial & Economic Information Service

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